Hayley Todd stands by a peace wall in the Short Strand neighborhood near the house where she grew up. Hours later, the IRGC accidentally shot down a Ukraine International Airlines plane and killed all 176 people on board, most of them Iranian citizens. The officially stated aim of Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy is to force Iran to negotiate a new deal that would entail accepting tougher restrictions on its nuclear activity and missile program as well as ending its support of militant groups in the Middle East (Al Jazeera, 21 May 2018). The first conflict between the Houthis and anti-Houthi forces decreased in intensity as the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement bore some fruit in 2019, leading to a dramatic decline in clashes and fatalities in and around the key port city of Hodeidah. Frontlines stabilised after about a month, and efforts were undertaken to solve the conflict and unify ranks against Houthi forces. Andrew Forsyth, who preferred not to show his face, shows the peace wall that runs through his backyard. Similar to recent years, violent events were reported in all 34 provinces throughout 2019. Violence between Indian security forces and Kashmiri locals could intensify in the coming year if the government neglects to take definitive action to curb human rights violations by security forces. In late 2018, five Bengali Hindus were reportedly killed by militants in Assam. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) hopes to make inroads in Delhi where they will face stiff opposition from the incumbent Aam Admi Party (AAP) and Indian National Congress (INC) as well as the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The vast majority of events involving gangs recorded by ACLED in 2019 were instances of violence against civilians. My mum lives here and you just never know,” Todd said, adding that growing up in the area was difficult with so much sectarian violence. “There were so many people killed just walking around this area. Every morning, the editorial team at public radio’s international news show The World meets to plan what they'll cover that day. However, the prospects for intra-Afghan peace are much more uncertain. 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2020 ... More people are being killed as a result of fighting in Afghanistan than in any other current conflict in the world. Brennan, a member of the Irish republican movement, grew up in Short Strand, a staunchly Catholic, working-class neighborhood in predominantly Protestant east Belfast. The growing threat posed by Islamist militant groups has attracted a number of foreign powers, with intersecting deployments of French, American, African, and EU troops all present in the region — adding to an already complex security situation. The war in Yemen consists of a variety of interconnected local conflicts involving regional powers competing for influence. However, after years of military offensives by American, Afghan, and Taliban forces, IS-K collapsed in the eastern province of Nangarhar – the group’s main stronghold – following the surrender of several hundred fighters and their families to the Afghan government in November (VOA, 21 November 2019). At the same time, citizens are suffering from the rising cost of living, stagnation in wages, and increasing unemployment rates. Furthermore, strong opposition to the Indian government’s actions in J&K were reported across the country in the form of protests, violent demonstrations, and clashes with police forces. It is these latent conflicts that tend to be ignored and poorly understood, but increased infiltration will make an enormous difference in how risk may move beyond the Sahel. At the same time, there are growing concerns that a volatile foreign policy threatens to generate disruptive ‘boomerang’ effects at home. Given Ghani’s narrow victory, the election might go to a second round as Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission continues to review thousands of complaints lodged by Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and other presidential candidates (VOA, 26 December 2019). News. We couldn’t have done it without your support. In one of the most violent crackdowns since the 1979 Revolution, Iranian security forces killed hundreds of demonstrators in less than a week, while arresting thousands more. Similarly, In Bihar, the NDA will have to contend against UPA as well as the incumbent Janata Dal (United). Somalia, along with other Gulf of Aden littoral states, has also become one of the “most vivid examples of potential destabilization brought by the Gulf rivalry” between Qatar and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (New York Times, 22 July 2019). Weeks of protests rallies held in Hawassa culminated in a successful referendum that determined Sidama as Ethiopia’s 10th semi-autonomous regional state. The Presbyterian Church (USA) has declined from 3.1 million members in 1984 to about 1.3 million today. There is a mutual desire to end the long war, which US officials have acknowledged to be “largely stalemated” (CRS, 5 December 2019). In the summer of 2019, ACLED launched a pilot project to systematically track all forms of political violence and demonstration activity across the US in real-time. Under pressure, the government withdrew the tax proposal and by the end of October, Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation (BBC, 29 October 2019). The most significant development last year was the breakdown of the delicate balance between the STC and Hadi government forces in Aden, Abyan, and Shabwah governorates in August. INTRODUCTION. Related: A New Protestant beginning for the Irish language in Belfast. In 2015, USIP and our Syrian partner convened 14 leaders—representing religious, tribal, and civic segments of society—for talks on tensions in the al-Qahtaniya area of northeast Syria. She holds a LL.M. Print the Page. On the one hand, US and Afghan forces ramped up their ground and aerial operations: the number of aerial strikes conducted in 2019 rose by approximately 20% compared to 2018, leading to one third more reported civilian fatalities. Should the disease spread to an active conflict zone or a major city, the humanitarian crisis will be even more severe. Sinn Féin party leader Mary Lou McDonald told the press on Friday “there is no doubt there are serious challenges ahead: The impact of Brexit, austerity and other issues.”, DCP manager Shannon said there has been an upsurge in fear in certain areas where “there is more of a paramilitary influence,” but “whether Brexit is going to bring a sectarian element, we’re not sure.”, Related: For this city in Northern Ireland, Brexit is a big headache. To download real-time and historical data for a specific actor type or a specific actor, select the relevant actor type or actor in those categories and leave all other categories as they are. More than half the peace lines that exist today were built after the peace agreement. Irish republican Frank Brennan stands near a peace wall in Short Strand, a staunchly Catholic, working-class neighborhood in predominantly Protestant east Belfast, Northern Ireland. It seems likely that Prime Minister Modi’s current tactics will unravel across India’s vast political landscape. Kohn, George C. Dictionary of Wars. To download real-time and historical data for specific event types, select the relevant event types from that category and leave all other categories as they are. In Northern Ireland, Catholics and Protestants in urban, working-class neighborhoods continue to be segregated 20 years after the signing of the Good Friday peace deal. As the country gears up for its first national election with universal suffrage since the outbreak of civil war in 1992, the ability to provide safety and effective governance are key to ensuring the legitimacy of the government. Membership has dropped by an average of … Last year, ACLED assessed that the Sahel was “most likely to be the geopolitical dilemma of 2019.” The Sahel now hosts more multiple, moving threats than it did in 2018: Nigeria’s Boko Haram has become a regional threat; Cameroon’s north is beset by cross-border violence; Chad is beginning to experience insurgency attempts in several uncoordinated spaces; Niger’s Tillaberi region – once able to stay the pressure from its borders – is now within the sights of an IS affiliate (Al Jazeera, 22 September 2019); and Burkina Faso is engulfed in conflict across all regions, as groups from Mali continue their southern encroachment. The unrest is expected to worsen leading up to the May 2020 election as ethnic and religious conflict takes center stage. Regional Overview: Europe 12-18 January 2020, Regional Overview: Middle East 19-25 January 2020, Explosive Developments: The Growing Threat of IEDs in Western Niger, Democracy Delayed: Parliamentary Elections and Insecurity in Mali, A Vicious Cycle: The Reactionary Nature of Militant Attacks in Burkina Faso and Mali, Heeding the Call: Sahelian militants answer Islamic State leader al-Baghdadi’s call to arms with a series of attacks in Niger, No Home Field Advantage: The Expansion of Boko Haram’s Activity Outside of Nigeria in 2019, JNIM: A Rising Threat to Stability in the Sahel, The New Normal: Continuity and Boko Haram’s Violence in North East Nigeria, Insecurity in Southwestern Burkina Faso in the Context of an Expanding Insurgency, Yemen’s Fractured South: ACLED’s Three-Part Series, Inside Ibb: A Hotbed of Infighting in Houthi-Controlled Yemen, How Houthi-Planted Mines are Killing Civilians in Yemen, Yemen’s Urban Battlegrounds: Violence and Politics in Sana’a, Aden, Ta’izz and Hodeidah, ACLED Methodology and Coding Decisions around the Yemen Civil War, The Border Campaign: Pakistan-India Border Violence and the Indian Elections, The Indian General Election 2019: A Final Recap, Securing Democracy: Electoral Violence in India, Blurring the Line of Control: How Indian Public Engagement has Shaped the Kashmir Conflict, Citizenship Row: India’s Controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill, 2016, ACLED Resources: Al Shabaab in Somalia and Kenya, Resilience: Al Shabaab Remains a Serious Threat, Not with a Whimper but with a Bang: Al Shabaab’s Resilience and International Efforts Against the Rebels, Continued Conflict: Updates on Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Somalia, Same Tune, New Key: Al Shabaab Adapts in the Face of Increased Military Pressure, War Drums: Rising Tensions Between the US and Iran, Call Unanswered: A Year of Protest in Iran, Borderline: Foreign Support and Spillover Conflicts in Iran’s Volatile Border Zones, The World According to the Taliban: New Data on Afghanistan, War of Attrition: A New Year of Violence in Afghanistan, Eastern Afghanistan: A Tale of Two Provinces, Fighting Bullets with Ballots: Afghanistan’s Chaotic Election, ACLED Methodology and Coding Decisions around the Conflict in Afghanistan, Bad Blood: Violence in Ethiopia Reveals the Strain of Ethno-Federalism under Prime Minister Abiy, Change and Continuity in Protests and Political Violence in PM Abiy’s Ethiopia, Assessing Political Violence & Demonstrations in the United States: ACLED Pilot Data & Preliminary Findings, Demonstrations in East Asia in 2020 Over China’s Mongolian Language Policy, CDT Spotlight: Demonstrations in Argentina, When Emerging Democracies Breed Violence: Sierra Leone 20 Years after the Civil War, The Wartime Transformation of AQAP in Yemen. Immigrant communities are faced with potential backlash by indigenous communities in the northeast region, as well as the threat of mass violence by ULFA militants. “The delayed progress has been because of the [government] departments and the system rather than residents,” he said. Somalia: High risk of Al Shabaab adapting to dominate and isolate a weak government. These two parties continually butt heads over how they view the legacy of the "troubles" and the way Northern Ireland should run. The Current Situation in Iraq. For three days, Iranian officials denied responsibility for the incident, before they admitted that the plane – which reportedly flew close to a military site near Tehran – was mistaken for an American cruise missile (Business Insider, 10 January 2020). 4. Naxal-Maoist conflict in Bihar, the historic violent political rivalry between the BJP and Trinamool Congress Party (TMC) in West Bengal, and retaliation against the unpopular CAA in Assam all present significant law and order challenges. Across the region, active militant groups are rapidly transforming from cell/matrix-based and midsize organizations into a mass insurgency. Similar violence has occurred in the Amhara region, including the successful assassination of Amhara regional leaders and the chief of staff of Ethiopia’s military. The Guardians of the Republic tend towards maintaining their independent status without any clear allegiance to either the STC or Hadi loyalists, while the Giants Brigade has become an ally of the STC in fighting in Ad Dali, Taizz, and Aden, as Hodeidah has seen a drastic decrease in clashes over the last year. Braden Fuller is an Africa Researcher with ACLED. After turbulent 2020, faith in America faces more big issues. Hassan Diab considers himself a technocrat and has promised to form a government of independent experts by the end of January. “A big part of what we do and how we bring change is about bringing people from either side of our community together, getting them to know one another and breaking down those mental barriers, because they’re the hardest barriers to break down.". in International Law from Leiden University and a B.A. There wasn’t a night when something didn’t happen.". Leaders of the Wolayta ethnic group are making a similar bid. In 2013, Northern Ireland’s government set up an initiative to remove all of them by 2023, but approximately 116 barriers remain “as visible symbols of community segregation and division,” reported the International Fund for Ireland, an organization that encourages contact and dialogue between nationalists and unionists. Others, often more violent, forwarded demands for enhanced cultural and political autonomy for ethnic groups in the country. All states in the Sahel are linked in the possibility that internal risks will create opportunities for distraction and overextension of state and international security agents, and collaboration of domestic armed groups with external, bordering threats.The region’s metastasizing militant networks are generating opportunities for training, arms trafficking, and recruitment across porous borders, exposing the vulnerabilities of Sahelian states like Chad and the western regions of the Central African Republic. All data for the selected area(s) will be exported. More broadly, there are heightened risks of clashes between protesters and counter-protesters going into an increasingly polarized 2020 election environment. ... About 27,180 results for Religion. Lebanon: High risk of protests devolving into organized violence. Since mid-October 2019, Lebanese citizens across all sectors and demographics have taken to the street to express a variety of grievances with the government. His reformist agendas have been met with much applause from the international community. Success in current negotiations could lead to a significant decrease in the Saudi war effort. Shannon said that although many residents want the walls to come down, there are some groups who still oppose it for their own interests. Start of conflict Conflict Continent Location Cumulative fatalities Fatalities in 2020 Fatalities in 2021 1978 Afghanistan conflict. President Ashraf Ghani received over 50% of the vote, crossing the threshold necessary to avoid a run-off with a thin margin of fewer than 12,000 votes. A lot of lies have been told on both the 'leave' and "remain" campaigns, and personally I think, once again, Northern Ireland and our communities are being played as a pawn in the game,” he said. in Political Science and Law. The current breakdown of the balance between the two sides could lead to an escalation of conflict across the region, albeit with different trajectories, as the STC has become an active player with different capabilities in all of the southern governorates. Unless cooperation among Somalia’s federal member states increases and the threat from Al Shabaab is more effectively neutralized, Somalia is likely to see continued obstacles to its recovery from collapse. Yet, many in his own country view the changes with skepticism, as ethnic conflict has engulfed parts of Ethiopia. Alarmingly, ruling BJP leaders admitted that the government did not anticipate the enormous backlash against the passage of the CAA beyond limited unrest among the Muslim community (US News, 25 December 2019). A Christian pastor's kidnapping and execution by Boko Haram in January along with a spate of reported attacks on churches in recent years in northern Nigeria have led some Christians in … A study by a German academic says religious conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa have been on the rise for decades. Organizations have been working fiercely in Northern Ireland to bring the two communities together. She oversees the quality, production, and coverage of all ACLED data across the globe; leads research and analysis across regional teams; aids in new partnerships with local sources and users; and supports the capacity building of NGOs and conflict observatories around the world. ... prompting some in Washington to worry about a potential military conflict between our two countries within the next six months. Lately, the Central African government officially declared war against the militia groups and started their own round of attacks. On 4 November 2020, Domus organized the DomusForum 2020 “The future of cities”. It is expected that, in 2020, brutal everyday violence will continue unabated, and homicide rates will break records once again. The attack led US President Donald Trump to announce that Mexican drug cartels would be designated as terrorist groups, though the plan was later put on hold. The Crusades helps us to understand the long history of religion and violence. More broadly, there is continuing concern that foreign-born citizens will experience additional negative repercussions of travel bans and related policies, particularly those of Iranian, Middle Eastern, and Latin American origin (New York Times, 5 January 2020; Buzzfeed News, 10 January 2020). Afghanistan: High risk of rising violence targeting civilians. If they [Protestants] believe they’re going to be sold out, that they’re going to get a united Ireland ... it’s all this kind of stuff that’s being filtered into people, and there are a lot of young people who will fall for that and may get involved with loyalism,” he said. This move appears to have done little to quell the protests. Serious violence has yet to occur as a result of these relationships, but the political strain jeopardizes the future of an already fragile state. If a direct conflict exists between the time that a final summative assessment must be completed and a student’s religious commitment, the student must contact the Registrar’s Office (email@example.com) by November 20, 2020. ACLED is a registered non-profit organization with 501(c)(3) status in the United States. These confrontations could escalate as the election approaches. Her research interests include foreign policy analysis, political psychology, security studies, and the international politics of the Middle East. The Arab-Israeli conflict is a contest over a particular territory. The walls were meant to be temporary, but they helped to calm tensions and decrease attacks between the two communities living in close proximity and became permanent. According to ACLED data, Al Shabaab is responsible for 44% of reported fatalities that occur during events in which civilians are directly targeted in Somalia. In addition to attacks on military and government targets, Al Shabaab remains the largest threat to civilians in the country, frequently targeting non-military sites and unarmed civil servants with assassinations and improvised explosives. Each of the ethnic conflicts that erupted throughout the last 30 years were the result of multiple factors. His research centers on political violence and protest movements, and he previously worked to document human rights violations in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The widespread conflicts and internal division have made Ethiopia prone to intense, sporadic violence. All data for the selected event type(s) will be exported. With minority groups in the US at increased risk of violence and intimidation, state-sanctioned targeting on the basis of nationality raises red flags. If peace talks fail, intensification of fighting could pose a serious threat to the Afghan government unless the US is willing to extend its military mission in the country. Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict … Tension in the Kashmir region was again aggravated in August 2019, prior to the J&K Block Development Council (BDC) elections, when the Indian government issued a presidential order abrogating articles 370 and 35 A of the constitution, thereby revoking autonomy for J&K, India’s only Muslim-majority state. Until this past weekend, however, the government was defunct for over three years after a row between the two major power-sharing parties: the majority Protestant and socially conservative Democratic Unionist Party, and majority Catholic Sinn Féin — once the Irish Republican Army’s political wing. This development took place in conjunction with a withdrawal of Emirati forces from several southern governorates and a step-by-step handover of responsibility on the “southern question” to Saudi Arabia. ACLED records the highest concentration of demonstrations in Lebanon’s major cities of Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli. While religious-based conflict may not be the core reason for the conflicts there in every instance, it surely is, at the very least, a basic influence and a major underpinning. Houthi forces, Hadi loyalists and pro-STC forces are targeted sporadically mainly through IED and suicide attacks in Aden, Abyan, and Marib governorates. Mexico is confronted with an increasingly complex, fragmented, and multipolar criminal market and a resolution to these structural problems is unlikely in the short-term, raising the possibility of intensified conflict in the new year. As a result, many Muslim civilians flee the nation. In addition to high levels of impunity, untrained security forces, and the general weakness of public institutions in Mexico, the escalation of violence can be partially attributed to the fragmentation of cartels caused by law enforcement campaigns primarily targeting their leaders, an approach that was initiated during the so-called “war on drugs” declared by former President Felipe Calderon in 2006. Likewise, more than 20 hate crimes against minority groups are recorded during this period, including seven attacks targeting members of the LGBTQ+ community, particularly transgender women. Mexico: High risk of cartel ‘criminal market’ developing into insurgency. Despite the BJP’s increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha post-2014, the opposition majority has hindered the BJP’s ability to pass controversial bills (Money Control, 1 January 2020). He holds a BA in General Management from Michigan State University and has research experience in the fields of minority rights, misgovernance and radicalization, tax policy and enterprise development, and public policy. But if negotiations remain fruitless and sanctions are snapped back, Iran has warned that it would withdraw from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (Guardian, 15 January 2020). Al Shabaab has also demonstrated its continued ability to launch sophisticated attacks on well-guarded targets, such as in a recent cross-border attack on the Manda Bay airfield in Kenya that resulted in the death of an American service member and two defense contractors (AFRICOM, 5 January 2020). Saudi disengagement will also affect the trajectory of the civil war in Yemen. In all southern governorates, successes in implementing the Riyadh Agreement will be crucial in determining future patterns of violence. The relatively minor missile attacks on US bases in Iraq, which according to US and Iraqi officials caused no casualties, indicate that Iran does not intend to provoke an all-out war (Washington Post, 9 January 2020). The perceived disconnect between personal religious beliefs and mainstream culture peaks among white evangelical Protestants, 66% of whom say there is at least some conflict between their own religious beliefs and the prevailing culture – including three-in-ten who feel “a great deal” of conflict. Federalist agendas and the push for greater autonomy in Ethiopia’s regional states are already shaping the country’s political landscape ahead of the 2020 election (Africa News, 2 January 2020), amplifying tensions between ethnic groups. CONFLICTS AND CAUSES OF CONFLICTS IN AFRICA. Over three months from July through September, ACLED collected data on approximately 3,200 events; while the vast majority of these events are peaceful protests, the project also recorded political violence events ranging from mass shootings and hate crimes to non-state militia activity and police brutality. In the '70s, the British government began to build separation barriers known as "peace walls" around Northern Ireland to separate Catholic and Protestant areas in an attempt to control sectarian violence. In Burkina Faso, the fight between militants and Koglweogo — including Mossi, Foulse, Gourmantché, and others depending on the region — is central to the current conflict, which is continuously mutating and fast becoming more brutal. The demonstrations initially began in the capital of Beirut after the cabinet announced a proposal to increase taxes on messaging apps, including WhatsApp, as well as tobacco and petrol as part of a series austerity measures (BBC, 7 November 2019). Like 2019, the new year is already being met with a mixture of hope and scepticism over the prospects for peace in Yemen. Iranian officials, for their part, have voiced readiness to reiterate “any good will and constructive effort” (Guardian, 14 January 2020). During the second year of Abiy’s term, ACLED has recorded clashes between ethnic militias and communal groups near the Oromo-Afar regional state borders, the Guji Oromo-Gedeo community border areas, the Amhara-Gumuz regional state borders, the Oromo-Benishangul Gumuz regional state borders, and the Oromo special zones in Amhara region, among others – resulting in the displacement of millions (Africa News, 13 May 2019). Internally, rising agitation against a controversial legislative measure sparked violence as the bill was eventually ratified as the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA). The likelihood of a successful outcome of the negotiations – which were resumed after Trump paid a surprise Thanksgiving visit to US troops in Afghanistan – is high. During that period a number of Jews from Russia and Eastern Europe began arriving in Palestine. She said it was a difficult environment. The inauguration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on 1 December 2018 brought an end to institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) rule, which dominated Mexican politics for much of the 20th century. Splinter factions of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) led by Jaal Marroo are accused of launching several attacks on regional officials and police forces in western Oromia (BBC Amharic, 2 December 2019). ACLED records over 23,000 deaths in 2019 stemming directly from the conflict — a 25% decrease in total reported fatalities from 2018, but still the second deadliest year of the war. From ethnic conflict has engulfed parts of Ethiopia the Maronite Christian minority, preferred! 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